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Voting has commenced for general elections in the Netherlands, with recent surveys indicating that the anti-immigration leader Geert Wilders and his PVV party could once again emerge victorious, though analysts believe the party stands little chance of joining the next government.

Survey Results and Political Landscape

Wilders' party, which in the last election pulled off a surprise first-place finish and formed a multi-party right-leaning government that collapsed within a year, is currently slightly leading in the polls and is forecast to secure between 24 and 28 MPs in the 150-member house of representatives.

Nevertheless, PVV's popularity has dipped since the previous election, when it won 37 parliamentary seats. All major parties have publicly ruled out entering into a coalition with the PVV leader, and who precipitated the collapse of the outgoing coalition in June over disagreements concerning his controversial immigration proposals.

Key Contenders and Forecasts

At the end of a election period focused on issues such as migration, healthcare costs, and the country's severe housing shortage, the centre-left Green Left/Labour party alliance, headed by former European commissioner Frans Timmermans, is placed a near second, projected to gain between 22 and 26 seats.

Also forecast to do well is the liberal-progressive Democrats 66, projected to boost its representation by almost five times to 21-25 seats, while the right-leaning Christian Democrats (CDA) is expected to significantly increase its number of MPs to between 18 and 22.

The outgoing cabinet members – comprising the Freedom Party, VVD, BBB, and centrist New Social Contract (NSC) – are all projected to see their representation reduced, with several experiencing significant losses.

Voting Process and Fragmentation

In the proportional Dutch system, gaining just 0.67% of the national vote yields a party a seat in parliament. Among the two dozen political groups participating in the vote – including parties for the over-50s, for youth, animal rights parties, for a universal basic income, and sports parties – up to 16 could enter parliament.

This significant division means that no single party is ever likely to win a majority, and Holland has been governed by multi-party governments – often including several groups in recent governments – for more than a century.

Post-Election Scenarios

The PVV leader claimed that "democracy will be dead" in the Netherlands if the his party ends up as the largest party yet is shut out of government. However, opponents and experts say that winning the most seats does not guarantee government participation and that any governing alliance with a majority is a democratic outcome.

Although the election result is uncertain and government negotiations could take several months, analysts indicate that following the most extreme government in recent memory, the future government is expected to be a inclusive alliance led by either the centre-left or moderate right.

Voting Process

Polling stations, including those in the miniature city Madurodam in The Hague and the Anne Frank museum in Amsterdam, opened at 7:30 AM (6.30am GMT) and will conclude at 9:00 PM. A typically reliable post-voting survey is expected shortly after the polls close.

Once voting concludes, an official negotiator will test possible coalitions that could command a majority in the legislature. Potential partners will then draft a governing pact for the coming term and must undergo a vote of confidence in the house before taking office.